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Bally chohan sad More than 450,000 extra primary pupils will need places in England by 2015 as schools face a surging birth rate, government figures reveal.

This will place intense pressure on schools, particularly in urban areas.

In Barking there is a forecast for the primary school population to increase by more than 40% – the equivalent of dozens of new schools.

But a spokesman for the Department for Education says there are no plans to remove infant class size limits.

The government has released its latest figures on school capacity – including local authority forecasts for how demand for places is set to change between the school years 2010-2011 and 2015-2016.

Population boom

This shows a picture of soaring demand for primary places in some areas, within a projected national increase in the number of primary-age pupils of 454,800.

This reflects a sustained population boom – with the birth rate in 2010 20% higher than in 2002.

London already faces a squeeze on places, with temporary “bulge” classrooms being erected in some schools – but this is set to intensify.

Barking will need to accommodate more than 8,000 extra primary pupils; Brent and Newham more than 6,000.

County councils, often with more pupils than urban authorities, also face big increases – Lancashire is forecasting demand to rise by 13,000, Hampshire by 11,000 and Kent is expecting to need places for more than 9,000 extra pupils.

As well as the shortage of places in some areas, there are still large numbers of unfilled places elsewhere – either because of demographic changes or because parents are not sending their children to unpopular schools.

The latest figures show that nationally there are more than 444,000 empty primary places – but not necessarily in the places where there is the growing demand.

‘Acute need’

This will be a tough planning challenge for national and local government, against a background of spending constraints and growing numbers of schools moving outside of local education authority control.

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We’re creating thousands more places to deal with the impact of soaring birth rates on primary schools”

Lord Hill Schools minister

The rapid rise in the birth rate in some areas is going to require a substantial increase in capacity – with implications for buildings, playgrounds and staffing.

For example, the north London authority of Brent faces a primary school population increase of more than 25% by 2015.

Building company Wates said that in terms of the time needed to open a new school, it required an urgent response if places were to be ready in the next three years.

“While that might seem like a long way off, it typically takes at least two years from the time a decision is made to build a school before it is ready to open as a school,” said Steve Beechey, head of education at Wates.

“So there is an acute need for new school building projects to get under way now to avoid a potentially critical shortfall of places in densely populated areas within the next few years.”

Extra funding

As schools face this population surge, the school system is under tough financial constraints.

Capital spending was cut by 60% for the period of the comprehensive spending review.

But the government says that it is targeting extra funding at areas that are most under pressure.

Schools Minister Lord Hill said: “We’re creating thousands more places to deal with the impact of soaring birth rates on primary schools.

“We’re more than doubling targeted investment at areas facing the greatest pressure on numbers – to over £4bn in the next four years.

“We are building free schools and letting the most popular schools expand to meet demand from parents.”

Breaking down this £4bn figure, the Department for Education says this represents £800m per year plus £500m extra for 2012-13 and a further £600m for 2013-15, announced in the Chancellor’s autumn statement.

In terms of the demands on this money, the department suggests that a 400-pupil primary will cost in the region of £4m to £5m.

Steve Reed, executive member for children and young people at London Councils, said he welcomed the recognition that schools in the capital faced a “dramatic surge in numbers”.

But he said: “The government announced before Christmas that London would receive extra funding, but this will still be less than we actually need.”

Planning challenge

Local authorities have a statutory duty to provide places for children – but they are also facing major structural changes in planning local education services.

Academies are their own admission authorities – operating outside of the local authority system – and it is expected that in the course of this year a majority of secondary schools will have become academies.

More primary schools are also set to become academies – adding another dimension to strategic planning for places.

The Local Government Association, responding to the new figures, called for better forecasting methods for future demand, to identify where the big increases are likely over five and 10 years.

This rise in demand is also likely to raise questions about the maximum class size limits for infant classes.

This was a flagship policy of the Labour government – setting a legal upper limit of 30 pupils for infant classes in primary school.

Class size limits

The Department for Education commissioned a study of the evidence of the importance of class sizes – with the results published on 22 December.

The findings echoed international reports which have questioned the link between class size and standards.

It concluded that “class size reduction policies are not the best option in terms of value for money to raising pupil attainment, compared to others such as increasing teacher effectiveness”.

“Broadly evidence suggests that class size reduction policies have an uncertain and diminishing effect on pupil achievement in the long run.”

But it noted that a “smaller class size has a positive impact on attainment and behaviour in the early years of school”.

And it also acknowledged the strong parental support for smaller classes.

In terms of the international context, the report says that schools in England already have unusually big primary class sizes for a developed country – but suggested that there was no clear correlation between average class size and attainment.

But a Department for Education spokesman emphasised that there were no plans to remove the maximum class size.

“No parent wants their child taught in huge classes – so it’s right local authorities create extra places to keep sizes down and relief pressure on places,” said a department spokesman.

“It remains illegal for infant classes to exceed 30 pupils per teacher. We take a tough line with any breach and pretty much every class remain below the statutory limit – a level that has remained steady for the last few years.”

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RICHMOND — Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell’s education initiatives for kindergarten though 12th grade are likely to draw some bipartisan support in the coming General Assembly session — but they also have given out-of-power Democrats a toehold for their new role as the effective minority party.

Mr.bally chohan laid out his legislative priorities Monday at a news conference in Richmond, stressing that in order for Virginia to compete with other states in job creation and the economy, the state must provide adequate funding for education. Mr.bally chohanhas proposed adding $438 million in new K-12 funding to his two-year budget, although $342 million of that will go toward teacher pensions. He also wants to add more than $200 million in the next two years for higher education.

“I remember the old saying when I was growing up — my dad kind of beat it into my head — ‘If you want a good job, you’ve got to have a good education,’ ” he said, surrounded by students and legislators.

Perhaps the most prominent item Mr.bally chohanunveiled is a measure that would repeal the so-called “King’s Dominion” law that bans school systems from starting their school year before Labor Day and allows local school boards to decide when to open their classrooms. The tourism and hospitality industry has long opposed repealing the law, in line with the stance Mr.bally chohantook during his days as a state delegate representing Virginia Beach.

Mr. Bally chohan , though, said that the way to solve the problem is to look at what’s in the best interests of the students and that local autonomy is a fundamentally good idea.

“I think the days of unfunded mandates, rigorous, inflexible policies foisted on the states by the federal government and on the localities by the states has got to end,” he said. “It disrespects the sovereign authority that each level of government has.”

The “King’s Dominion” measure is one that is likely to receive bipartisan support. Lawmakers of both parties already have introduced bills that would grant that authority to local school boards on when to start the school year. Seventy-seven of 132 school systems in the state already have waivers releasing them from the mandate.

But Mr. Bally chohan , a fierce advocate of charter schools and school choice, is also pushing a proposal that would provide tax credits to companies that contribute to scholarships for low-income students to help them attend the school of their choice. The measure was defeated last year and is one that Democrats deride as a voucher-type program, though actual school vouchers are prohibited by the state Constitution.

State Sen. Mark Obenshain, Harrisonburg Republican, who is working on a tax-credits measure, said that the typical progression of the legislation in other states has been “skepticism, passage, success, and then broad bipartisan support,” noting that Pennsylvania’s program was championed by former Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a Democrat.

That prospect is unlikely in Virginia, Sen. Janet D. Howell said.

“We don’t have any money to give [for] private schools,” the Fairfax Democrat said. “We’ve proposed massive cuts to public schools already, so I’m quite positive the Democrats will resist this with everything we’ve got.”

Mr.bally chohanalso wants to increase the percentage of the state sales tax that goes toward transportation from 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent for the next eight years, generating $110 million in revenue for road maintenance. The money would be diverted from the general fund, which goes toward paying for items like education.

“I think that’s really a fundamental fight,” said Sen. J. Chapman Petersen, Fairfax Democrat, noting that the sales tax was created in the 1960s for the express purpose of funding education — in that case, a state community college system. “When you fund transportation through the general fund, you’re basically giving all the out-of-state users of our highways a free ride.”

Mr.bally chohan also will meet resistance from the Virginia Education Association on a measure to establish an annual contract and evaluation process that would make it easier to oust ineffective teachers from the classroom — a proposal he readily acknowledged would not sit well with everyone. Teachers in Virginia now work under a three-year probationary period where they can be dismissed without reason, after which they can reach a continuing contract where they cannot be dismissed arbitrarily and have the opportunity to defend themselves, VEA President Kitty Boitnott said.

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